Lay the draw tips

Lay the draw is a popular football betting strategy for Betfair and Betdaq users. You lay the draw before the game and look to trade out in play or let it run. We’re covering out best free lay the draw tips along with a couple of strategies for exiting the trades. If you’re new to this trade then check out our how to lay the draw guide here. We’ll keep a track our our record with these trades so you can see how we’ve got on.

Lay the draw tips – 19th August

Some recent examples of our trades

Leicester v Everton 3.55 – Got out at 1-0 on 70 minutes – finished 2-0 with a 92nd minute goal.Watford v Palace 3.45 – Exited at 1-0 0n 70 mins right before the penalty. Finished 1-1

Southampton v Spurs 3.4 – 2-1 on 70 mins but stayed in as Southampton down to 10 men, finished 4-1.

2015-2016 season (only started posting towards the end of the season). 13/15 tips in profit following our trading plan – 10/15 tips won at full time.

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A recent successful trade in the Europa League

Lay the draw tips for Betfair

How we pick our lays

What we look for in our lay the draw tips are games that look like goals and teams who are not drawing much. This helps us profile the teams an get an idea of the games to target. We avoid any games where the draw is over 4 as if you get a goal against the favourites you can’t always get out in a profit. It’s mainly about getting an idea of games where teams are in form but the odds are not too short on one of the teams winning.

Exit strategy

This is something we’d say you need to find your own style with and go with what kind of returns you are looking for. You can do anything from getting out after any goal regardless of the time, or at the other extreme letting every trade run for the maximum profit.

How we trade is to look to get out at around 60-70 minutes if there has been a goal or at any point if a 2 goal lead is taken, this is what we will use for our above calculation of profitable trades. We will also track the number of wins we would have had if we had simply let all the trades run until full time.

29 comments

  • how often you post these?

    • Hi Gazz,

      We generally post on a Wednesday or Thursday for the weekend ahead and stick to 3 tips a week. There are loads more lay the draw opportunities out there we just stick to our top tips on here. On a run of 12/12 in profit at the moment!

  • Hi, I was wondering what your thoughts were on this. I see a lot of lay the draw strategies online where many are laying draws with odds on favourites at home around the 1.4 mark. Surely you’d go with the favourites here. Looking at your selections you do it differently and very successful without the use of odds on favourites. What odds region do you look for?

    • Hi Steve, thanks for the comment. Completely agree on laying the draw on low favourites, the % return when you’re laying the draw at 5.5-6 isn’t worth the risk in my opinion. We look for games where you’d expect to see goals based on recent results. I’m quite flexible with a regard to odds but usually go for up to 3.8, but I’ll go as high as 4.2ish if I think the stats are strong enough. The exit strategy on 70 minutes seems to work very well although in some cases you’re getting out with a very small profit – in these instances I personally just cover my stake and let the profit run.

  • Leicester v Everton 3.55 – Got out at 1-0 on 70 minutes – finished 2-0 with a 92nd minute goal.what price was the get out trade @ 70mins please help me see what profits I might be able to obtain
    cheers doug

  • Which team can i bet on draw

  • What would be your exit strategy at a 1-1 draw at 60-70 mins?

  • I’m trying to improve my match selection skills and would love your input.
    I see that your selections for Sunday includes the Arsenal v Man City match. Neither of these teams seem to have had recent good form and betfair is not showing a clear, low favourite for the game. Also with the favourite being the away team I wondered what your thoughts were on selecting this pick to improve my own selection skills.
    Betfair is showing high prices on the 0-0 and low prices for the over 2.5 so I can see that the bookies will be expecting goals and also the LTD being negative of 4 is another plus but I wondered if there was anything i was missing for this being a good pick.
    As always your input is hugely appreciated.

    • Hi Lee, that turned out to be one of very few losing lay the draw tips! I saw goals in the game, 2 teams with not the best defences. I prefer to look at games with lower odds for the draw as you get a better return. Laying the draw with a low favorite doesn’t really work for me – if the non fav gets an early goal and keeps hanging on the draw odds don’t move much. If the favs score early then backing them is the better option. Thats just my opinion though – I know LTD in those games is popular with some people.

  • Do you keep a results record of previous selections?

  • Thanks for another set of great tips. I am interested in what peaked your interest in the West Brom v Leicester game as they have both had pretty poor form recently and 3 draw combined out of there last 3 matches. Also they have only scored around 8 combined goals from their last 5. Thanks again.

  • Hi there
    More great tips as always! Thanks guys.
    Quick question. If no goal has been scored by 70 mins would you advise cashing out?
    Thanks
    Matt

    • Hi Matt,

      This one comes down to persona choice really. I don’t ever cash out as I picked the match for a reason and I’m happy to stick with my research. After the 70th minute a goal either way usually results in a big profit so I’m happy to let it run. But cashing out these bets for a smaller loss is popular. I’d say look at each games stats and make a call based on how the game looks would be a good place to start building your own lay the draw strategy.
      Si

  • Trevor Bamfield

    Apologies for what might be a daft question but could you please explain the methods for closing out a lay if I cannot monitor the whole match.
    Thank you.

    • Hi Trevor, I’d say the best option is to let it run if you’re unable to follow the match. The alternative is to sign up to a bot to close the trade at a set price.

  • Hi Guys

    Well the new season is within sniffing distance. Is it me or does it seem like about a million years since the last Prem game!

    Great to see you have your selections for the first set of games up all ready, good on ya.

    Best of luck for the season and thanks as always for the great tips.

    Cheers
    Matt

    • Hi Matt,

      Yeah it feels like forever with no major championship in the summer and we’re not doing an LTD on friendlies or any nonsense Asia cups! The prices may change between now and the games kicking off but we wanted to get them up early to try and bag some early value.

      Good luck for this season, hopefully we can keep the strike rate going up!

  • Can’t really use my own take on LTD until the various leagues are at least 5 games in. Up until that time I have just been using various prediction sites like Statarea where I look for home or away wins at 55% plus. I then take that info and see which of these games are 4.0 or under . Getting fed up with Scandinavian games so its great our leagues start up again this weekend . I assume you do LTD tips for all the the English and major European leagues .

  • Been dabbling a bit in the DNB (Draw no Bet) market . Limited value to be had unless you select teams above the 2.2 odds mark . No good selecting odds on teams as a 3rd of your stake is just getting your money back on the draw . Do you post DNB tips ?

  • i found over the summer i had successful LTD trades in the brazil seria A league.

  • Do you have any LTD for tomorrow’s matches?

    Thanks
    Andy

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