Lay the draw tips

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Lay the draw tips

Lay the draw is a popular football betting strategy for Betfair and Betdaq users. You lay the draw before the game and look to trade out in play or let it run. We’re covering out best free lay the draw tips along with a couple of strategies for exiting the trades. If you’re new to this trade then check out our how to lay the draw guide here. We’ll keep a track our our record with these trades so you can see how we’ve got on.
Want to chat Lay the Draw or have any questions? Scroll down the page to the comment section and get in touch.

Lay the draw tips – 18th & 19th September

Our tips are back for the start of the 2018/2019 Premier League and football league season. Check out our recent results from the World Cup below. New to lay the draw? Grab yourself a £20 risk free first bet* with Betfair below.

Join Betfair Exchange and get your risk free bet here*

*New customers only, bet at least £20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you £20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. See below for full Terms and Conditions.

Current tips

  Liverpool v PSG 3.9
  Schalke v Porto 3.45
  Valencia v Juventus 3.7 

2018/2019 results

18 tips

17 in profit

16 wins at FT

New to the Betfair exchange? Get a £20 risk free first bet.

 

Some recent examples of our trades

Leicester v Everton 3.55 – Got out at 1-0 on 70 minutes – finished 2-0 with a 92nd minute goal.

Watford v Palace 3.45 – Exited at 1-0 0n 70 mins right before the penalty. Finished 1-1

Southampton v Spurs 3.4 – 2-1 on 70 mins but stayed in as Southampton down to 10 men, finished 4-1.

World Cup results

15 tips

14 in profit (93.3% Strike rate)

13 wins at FT

2017-2018 results

158 tips

130 in profit (83% Strike rate)

116 wins at FT

2016-2017 results 

144 tips

132 in profit

105 wins at full time

91.66% strike rate for profitable tips.

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A recent successful trade in the Europa League

Lay the draw tips for Betfair

How we pick our lays

What we look for in our lay the draw tips are games that look like goals and teams who are not drawing much. This helps us profile the teams an get an idea of the games to target. We avoid any games where the draw is over 4 as if you get a goal against the favourites you can’t always get out in a profit. It’s mainly about getting an idea of games where teams are in form but the odds are not too short on one of the teams winning.

Exit strategy

This is something we’d say you need to find your own style with and go with what kind of returns you are looking for. You can do anything from getting out after any goal regardless of the time, or at the other extreme letting every trade run for the maximum profit.

How we trade is to look to get out at around 60-70 minutes if there has been a goal or at any point if a 2 goal lead is taken, this is what we will use for our above calculation of profitable trades. We will also track the number of wins we would have had if we had simply let all the trades run until full time.

 

78 Responses

  1. gazz says:

    how often you post these?

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Gazz,

      We generally post on a Wednesday or Thursday for the weekend ahead and stick to 3 tips a week. There are loads more lay the draw opportunities out there we just stick to our top tips on here. On a run of 12/12 in profit at the moment!

  2. Jay says:

    Good job BetFC

  3. Steve says:

    Hi, I was wondering what your thoughts were on this. I see a lot of lay the draw strategies online where many are laying draws with odds on favourites at home around the 1.4 mark. Surely you’d go with the favourites here. Looking at your selections you do it differently and very successful without the use of odds on favourites. What odds region do you look for?

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Steve, thanks for the comment. Completely agree on laying the draw on low favourites, the % return when you’re laying the draw at 5.5-6 isn’t worth the risk in my opinion. We look for games where you’d expect to see goals based on recent results. I’m quite flexible with a regard to odds but usually go for up to 3.8, but I’ll go as high as 4.2ish if I think the stats are strong enough. The exit strategy on 70 minutes seems to work very well although in some cases you’re getting out with a very small profit – in these instances I personally just cover my stake and let the profit run.

  4. douglas says:

    Leicester v Everton 3.55 – Got out at 1-0 on 70 minutes – finished 2-0 with a 92nd minute goal.what price was the get out trade @ 70mins please help me see what profits I might be able to obtain
    cheers doug

  5. lazaro bahin says:

    Which team can i bet on draw

  6. Lee says:

    What would be your exit strategy at a 1-1 draw at 60-70 mins?

  7. Lee says:

    I’m trying to improve my match selection skills and would love your input.
    I see that your selections for Sunday includes the Arsenal v Man City match. Neither of these teams seem to have had recent good form and betfair is not showing a clear, low favourite for the game. Also with the favourite being the away team I wondered what your thoughts were on selecting this pick to improve my own selection skills.
    Betfair is showing high prices on the 0-0 and low prices for the over 2.5 so I can see that the bookies will be expecting goals and also the LTD being negative of 4 is another plus but I wondered if there was anything i was missing for this being a good pick.
    As always your input is hugely appreciated.

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Lee, that turned out to be one of very few losing lay the draw tips! I saw goals in the game, 2 teams with not the best defences. I prefer to look at games with lower odds for the draw as you get a better return. Laying the draw with a low favorite doesn’t really work for me – if the non fav gets an early goal and keeps hanging on the draw odds don’t move much. If the favs score early then backing them is the better option. Thats just my opinion though – I know LTD in those games is popular with some people.

  8. Charlie Wright says:

    Do you keep a results record of previous selections?

  9. Lee says:

    Thanks for another set of great tips. I am interested in what peaked your interest in the West Brom v Leicester game as they have both had pretty poor form recently and 3 draw combined out of there last 3 matches. Also they have only scored around 8 combined goals from their last 5. Thanks again.

  10. Matt says:

    Hi there
    More great tips as always! Thanks guys.
    Quick question. If no goal has been scored by 70 mins would you advise cashing out?
    Thanks
    Matt

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Matt,

      This one comes down to persona choice really. I don’t ever cash out as I picked the match for a reason and I’m happy to stick with my research. After the 70th minute a goal either way usually results in a big profit so I’m happy to let it run. But cashing out these bets for a smaller loss is popular. I’d say look at each games stats and make a call based on how the game looks would be a good place to start building your own lay the draw strategy.
      Si

  11. Trevor Bamfield says:

    Apologies for what might be a daft question but could you please explain the methods for closing out a lay if I cannot monitor the whole match.
    Thank you.

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Trevor, I’d say the best option is to let it run if you’re unable to follow the match. The alternative is to sign up to a bot to close the trade at a set price.

  12. Matt says:

    Hi Guys

    Well the new season is within sniffing distance. Is it me or does it seem like about a million years since the last Prem game!

    Great to see you have your selections for the first set of games up all ready, good on ya.

    Best of luck for the season and thanks as always for the great tips.

    Cheers
    Matt

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Matt,

      Yeah it feels like forever with no major championship in the summer and we’re not doing an LTD on friendlies or any nonsense Asia cups! The prices may change between now and the games kicking off but we wanted to get them up early to try and bag some early value.

      Good luck for this season, hopefully we can keep the strike rate going up!

  13. Andy Booth says:

    Can’t really use my own take on LTD until the various leagues are at least 5 games in. Up until that time I have just been using various prediction sites like Statarea where I look for home or away wins at 55% plus. I then take that info and see which of these games are 4.0 or under . Getting fed up with Scandinavian games so its great our leagues start up again this weekend . I assume you do LTD tips for all the the English and major European leagues .

  14. Andy Booth says:

    Been dabbling a bit in the DNB (Draw no Bet) market . Limited value to be had unless you select teams above the 2.2 odds mark . No good selecting odds on teams as a 3rd of your stake is just getting your money back on the draw . Do you post DNB tips ?

  15. george says:

    i found over the summer i had successful LTD trades in the brazil seria A league.

  16. Andy says:

    Do you have any LTD for tomorrow’s matches?

    Thanks
    Andy

  17. Matt says:

    You guys are on fire!!!
    Thanks for the great tips lads!

  18. venuslocal says:

    Thanks.Do you ever put a small £2 back bet on the correct score of 0-0? I ifnd it helps a bit as a sort of safety net and it seems to help psychologically just in case things don’t go according to plan.

    • Bet FC says:

      I personally don’t these day as I found it was just reducing my profit as I didn’t hit very many 0-0s at all. But you can build it into your strategy if you prefer a slightly lower risk approach.

  19. Derek Morrison says:

    Hi,
    If a goal is scored early in the match, (first 10 mins), by underdog do you let the trade run on. Also, do you cash out straight after a goal has been scored to put us in profit or do you let it run to 60-70 mins then trade out? What happens if equaliser comes in the 59th minute?
    Thanks
    Derek

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi,

      If theres an early goal I still let it run, if the underdog went 2-0 up I’d probably get out. I wait 2-3 minutes after a goal for the odds to settle down before I cash out or occasionally I’ll just lay off my stake if its later in the game. It’s tough luck if the equaliser comes in the 59th minute, I think it happened twice in all of last season (an equaliser without another goal).

  20. Derek Morrison says:

    Hi
    Do you think there would be any increase in profitability by taking your selections, and if, any of these matches are drawing at half time, lay at HT and cash out for increased profit. If still drawing, then could be allowed to run to final whistle as we reduced liability by laying at HT where odds would be about 2.4?
    Wouldn’t be so many selections as not all games will be drawing at HT. However, 30% usually are 0-0 at HT, and about 15% are 1-1 at HT. Just a thought
    Cheers
    Derek

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Derek, that is a strategy that you could employ for a lower liability. I personally wouldn’t lay the draw with a 1-1 at half time but thats just my own thoughts and not anything based on stats.

  21. LL says:

    Can you be more specific with your results data please?

    S/R and how many bets were profitable is one thing, but what is it in monetary figures?

    36 bets so far, what is the actual P/L and ROI, and I assume you take into account the 5% Betfair commission.

    Cheers.

  22. DAVE says:

    Sydney. I cant for some reason get cash out after game starts.
    but I am happy to follow tips to FT. and profit.
    having fun thank you bet FC.

  23. Marty says:

    Are your latest results figures updated weekly? I cannot say for sure but it seems to be the same as last week even though your 3 selections for last week all won at FT (Hudd v WBA, Swansea v Brighton and Everton v Watford)

  24. Mowills says:

    Hi, will you post a card betting acca today? That seems to be my favourite.

  25. Gary says:

    2.3 pts up on yesterdays selection, traded at 65 minutes

  26. Derek says:

    Hi
    I came across something to reduce liability if the game is a draw later on in the game before we have traded. If odds reach 2.0, then we could reverse the trade by staking double the amount we laid with. So if we laid £10@3.8 (liability £28) pre match and we were drawing up to 75th minute, odds of 2.0, then we could back the draw for £20. This would leave us in the situation if it remained a draw to the end: win £20 from back bet but lose £28 from initial lay = -£8 or, if the game didn’t finish a draw, we would win £10 from our lay bet but lose £20 from our back bet = -£10, as opposed to losing the whole £28 liability. What’s your take on this option?
    Best Regards
    Derek

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Derek,

      Intersting idea and one to test on a few games to see how it works out. Personally this isn’t one for me, I’m always happy with my picks so I remain confident until the end. This give a better profit on a late goal which I’m happy to take the full loss on. Let me know how you get on if you give it a try.

  27. Robert says:

    Hi,
    Do you only do Premier League games? There’s a couple of German games tonight that look good. Wolfsburg v Leipzig and Freiburg v M’gladbach

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Robert, I stick to English football mainly as it’s what I know best really. If find the German games don’t swing the odds as much as there’s usually more goals. Just a personal preference. The Wolfsburg game does look a good one though at those odds/ recent stats.

  28. Simon says:

    Hi guys, I really appreciate your effort in your predictions. Actually its not easy to predict football match because anything can happen, but you have been trying to get the best for us. God Bless You. But sir, how about those Championship, League One, League Two and National League in England? It’s like Draws are somehow common there than Premier League (from my own view) How about getting games for us from there? Thanks!

  29. Sylvester says:

    Hi am Sylvester, and am new here. This three games that you drop is it three for two or one?

  30. Sylvester says:

    And again no fixture like cardiff vs Bolton this weekend??

  31. jermaine redhead says:

    just out of interest what platform are you using to trade as i have looked on betfair and the odds are no wherr near at the minute. do you reccomend putting the bets on the day of the game or the day you post them. cheers 4 the good tips

    • Bet FC says:

      I try to get in early at lower odds by setting the market or edging others out. I’d only advise this if you are experienced in how Betfair works. Alternatively the morning of the match is usually a good time to get the set market odds.

  32. jermaine redhead says:

    also a quick one on your staking what percentage of your bank roll do you stake per bet?

    • Bet FC says:

      Generally around 5% of bank roll, it does vary though. I’ll go lower, 2.5% for cup games and occasionally have a 0-0 cover.

  33. jermaine redhead says:

    sorry for the 3 messages in a row also i watched your you tube video on strategy do still stay in the game all the way until the end if after 60mins its still a draw? and also do.you cash out straight away if 2 goals are scored or do you wait.until 70-75 mins?

    • Bet FC says:

      This one varies slightly with me, if its a draw on 60 minutes I stay in – always. But the 2 goal lead I usually take a view of the odds, depending who the favourite is will affect the odds. I’d usually say I’ll be out by 60 minutes if it’s 2-0, but if the favourite is leading I may stay in on some occasions. This is just one to get a feel for how you like to trade. No worries on the 3 messages, I’ve replied to them individually so it will make sense to anyone reading through the comments!

  34. jermaine redhead says:

    thanks for the replies .interesting ive been laying the draw for around 5-6 months but the last couple of months have been struggling to profit. i am breaking even but i read quite a few lay the draw tips and a lot say once the draw odds drop to 2(this is usually 60-65 mins) then cash out and take your loss because the loss at the end is too high. staying in all the way concerns me because of the big loss but im trying to change my strategy to start profiting more.

  35. Enessy says:

    I love this group and the people on the lay

  36. Joe says:

    Hello, I just bumped into this site. How often do you predict the draw lays. Pls keep me posted

  37. Colin Bache says:

    Is there any apps or maybe software that u use as well for stats etc
    Hope to hear from u soon

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Colin,

      I look at a few different sites to identify games where there will be goals, preferably in the latter part of the game. Its just some data I go over rather than a specific software.

      • Colin Bache says:

        What sites do you use then

        • Bet FC says:

          Adam Choi, Win draw Win and soccerway are the main ones I visit.

          • Colin Bache says:

            I’ve just looked at win draw win but how do u determine that it probably won’t be a draw then

          • Bet FC says:

            Hi Colin, I actually look at it more from a goals angle where there’s the potential for late goals in the game, or games that will be open which gives us the opportunity to trade out.

  38. Samuel sam says:

    how to sign
    in

  39. Gary Broome says:

    Do you post your predictions if so where can I get hold of them please
    Regards Gary Broome

    • Bet FC says:

      Hi Gary, They’re posted here when I have them – I’ve not been keen on the last round of games as a lot of them are meaningless and some teams are rotating players.

  40. Hi guys ,can uruguay play draw with france

  41. Tabitha Kimani says:

    Hello. Kindly share today’s ticket I will really appreciate.

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